Here are our AFL picks for Sunday 2 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Gold Coast Suns vs Melbourne Demons: Under 90.5 totals_h1, priced at -111 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Gold Coast Suns vs Melbourne Demons: Under 90.5 totals_h1 (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When the Gold Coast Suns clash with the Melbourne Demons at People First Stadium, expect a defensive battle in the first half. The Suns, averaging 85 points in their last five home games, will face a sturdy Demons defense allowing just 80.6 points on the road. With Gold Coast struggling to convert opportunities into goals and Melbourne tightening their backline, the under 90.5 looks enticing. The Suns' recent form, averaging 26.6 shots at goal but only 12.8 target goals, indicates inefficiency in converting chances. Meanwhile, the Demons' ability to limit opposition scoring, coupled with their own offensive prowess, suggests a low-scoring affair. Back the under in the first half for a strategic play on Sunday.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
If we dive into the recent form of the Greater Western Sydney Giants and the Gold Coast Suns, the contrast is stark. The Giants, playing at the Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, have been a force to be reckoned with, averaging a solid 100.4 points for and only 93.8 points against in their last five home games. Their attacking prowess is evident, with an average of 15.2 target goals per game. On the flip side, the Suns have struggled on the road, managing a mere 65.8 points for and conceding a hefty 104 points against on average. With the Giants boasting a margin average of 6.6 in their recent home fixtures and the Suns languishing with a -38.2 margin on the road, backing the Greater Western Sydney Giants at -17.5 spread seems like a prudent move for this matchup.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The Western Bulldogs are set to dominate against the struggling North Melbourne Kangaroos at Marvel Stadium. Over their last five home games, the Bulldogs have been a force to be reckoned with, boasting an impressive average margin of 5.8 points and scoring an average of 87.4 points per game. With their solid defensive record, allowing just 81.6 points on average in their home games, they're likely to stifle the Kangaroos' offense. On the other hand, North Melbourne has been faltering on the road, averaging a margin of -17.8 in their last five away games. Their struggles in generating scoring opportunities, with an average of just 68.8 points per game, will play into the Bulldogs' hands. Expect the Bulldogs to capitalize on their strengths in clearances, contested possessions, and inside 50s to secure a convincing victory. This matchup heavily favors the Bulldogs to snag the win.
Gold Coast Suns vs Melbourne Demons: Under 42.5 team_totals_h1 (-112)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright footy punters, let's break down why hitting the under on the Gold Coast Suns' team totals in the first half against the Melbourne Demons could be a savvy move this weekend. The Suns have been struggling to find their scoring rhythm lately, averaging just 66 points over their last five outings. Even at home, where they notch up more inside 50s and shots at goal, their conversion rate has let them down, managing only 9.8 target goals per game. Facing a defensively sound Melbourne side, conceding an average of 80.6 points on the road and 83.4 overall, the Suns might find it tough to break through and light up the scoreboard early on. With the line set at 42.5, it looks like the Suns could fall short in the first half, making the under an enticing play for this clash at People First Stadium.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When Essendon Bombers clash with Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium, expect a defensive showdown favoring the visitors. Adelaide's recent away form showcases their ability to restrict opponents, allowing just 86.2 points per game on average. Their solid defense is complemented by an efficient attacking style, averaging 13.8 goals per game on the road. In contrast, Essendon has struggled at home, conceding an average of 104.8 points in their last five games. With Adelaide's disciplined defense and consistent scoring, the Under 53.5 for Adelaide Crows in the Team Totals H1 market appears enticing. Expect a tight first half battle with Adelaide limiting Essendon's scoring opportunities, making the Under a strong betting choice in this matchup.
Essendon Bombers vs Adelaide Crows: Over 16.5 team_totals_q1 (-108)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
G'day footy punters! When Essendon Bombers host the Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium, the stage is set for a high-flying scoring showdown. The Bombers have been a force to be reckoned with at home, averaging a solid 47 Inside50s and 20 Shotsatgoal per game in their last 5 home matches. Their offensive firepower, notching an impressive 9.2 Target Goals and 62.8 Points For on average, makes them a potent threat from the get-go. Meanwhile, the Crows have shown some defensive vulnerabilities on the road, conceding an average of 74 points in their last 5 away games and 77.4 points overall. With Essendon's attacking prowess and Adelaide's leaky defense, it's no surprise that the Over 16.5 on the Bombers' Q1 Team Totals is a tantalizing bet. Expect the Bombers to come out swinging and snag some early goals to kick off the game in style!
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
See All Our Picks
You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.
Unlock all picks